Claims are staked, the price war is over. As growth rates went down to less 1 million new customers during the last two years, market saturation seems to be reached. Some more observations might add to the picture: Germany’s Federal Association for Information Technology, Telecommunications and New Media BITKOM states that 82% of German households are now connected to fixed high speed internet. In addition, Telekom argues, that already 3% of customers today cause 30% of traffic, consuming up x20 of the average. So, hitting 75 GB/month isn’t that far away for a vast majority of customers. Average monthly data consumption went up 120% from 23GB to 51GB within one year.įor Germany, a distinctly lower average of around 20 GB/month per subscriber is mentioned by Telekom presently, but CAGR between 33% to 50% are expected, too. Customers of IPTV provider Netflix cause one third of the whole of the fixed network traffic at peak. Sandvine, a networking equipment company and specialist for deep packet inspection issued comparably similar results last November in their Global Internet Phenomena Report: Accordingly, in the US 65% of data traffic are already due to audio and video streaming. And of course, it’s part of a network infrastructure provider like Cisco to animate business with great sounding predictions. To most of us, these exa-terrestric numbers are unconceivable. Between 20 IP traffic to TVs, tablets and smartphones will rise with CAGRs (compound annual growth rates) of 42%, 116% and 82% respectively.Video-on-demand traffic will triple by 2016 – and constitute 55% of all consumer internet traffic – up from 51% in 2011 (but for the real extent set this into relation to the total of 110,000 Exabytes/month!).IP traffic in Western Europe will reach 24.4 Exabytes/ month by 2016, from 7,000 Exabytes/month in 2011.Worldwide IP traffic will rise from 30,000 Exabyte/month in 2011 to 110,000 Exabyte/month in 2016.The recent edition was published in May 2012. The most prominent and probably comprehensive one is Cisco’s Visual Networking Index. Telekom as all other ISPs are startled by predictions on the future data consumption. And indeed, it seems that new rules are presently about to be defined. Significantly enough the motto of Medientage 2012 was: At the Crossroads. Quelle: screenshot Click here for René Obermann’s announcement at Medientage 2012 (use subtitle for English translation) 300 billion Euros will be necessary within the next years in order to make infrastructure fit for rising demands of bandwidth. Addressing Google’s YouTube and others he demanded, that content providers causing heavy traffic on the net must contribute to the costs of infrastructure expansion. Telekom (2013) CEO René Obermann got upset last autumn during the opening panel at the Medientage München. Nevertheless, this move can be seen as evidence of a paradigm shift with far reaching consequences for broadcasters, challenging their digital strategies. At the moment this is still nothing more than an announcement, or call it a reprieve, as Telekom declares, that technical implementation will not be completed before 2016. So this sounds brutal? Well, protests arise, calling this ‘an attack on the free, unlimited and equal internet’. The limits lift up to 400GB/month for the few ones having a „up to 200Mbit/s“ contract, according to the press release. So if new customers in the slowest category „up to 16Mbit/s“ reach a maximum of 75 GB transfer volume, they will have to cope with 384kbit/s until the end of the month – unless they are willing to pay extra. Since April 22 nd ( 2013), a discussion develops in Germany, when ISP Telekom declared that starting in May new DSL contracts will contain speed limits. Paradigm shift – the end of flat rates as we knew them?įacts and considerations for broadcasters. „….will threaten innovation, free speech and privacy, and compromise Europe’s ability to lead in the digital economy“ ( Tim Berners-Lee) Eventhough I amended and marked some things to make it clear: This is 2013! – please consider it being „historic“ in many other respects, too – evenmore in the light of the recent decision of European Parliament to enable an internet, with rules, that… But unfortunately, the article is no longer available on the net, as EBU apparently has a fairly short MDD (minimum durability date) for reasons whatsoever. It stirred some discussion and activities within the broadcasting community. Quelle: screenshot The following analysis was originally published on EBU’s EBUZZ platform in May 2013, shortly after German Telekom announced plans to end unlimited flatrates on DSL. Thus goaded, I started to think about possible relations and consequences for public service broadcasters – and their audience….
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